Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84
No46%
ours 2.18
All matches
—
Pasto — Alianza Valledupar, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
Pasto
1.6DLWWD
Alianza Valledupar
1.3LWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
52%26%22%
Pasto52%Draw26%Alianza Valledupar22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Pasto1.94—
XDraw3.79—
2Alianza Valledupar4.53—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPastoAlianza ValleduparCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded0.831.502.33
Corners6.011.28.6
Cards3.03.06.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PastoAlianza Valledupar
AD Pasto 52%, Alianza Valledupar FC 22%. The safest is “AD Pasto or draw” at 78%.
AD Pasto 52%Draw 26%Alianza Valledupar FC 22%
1st half
41 · 39 · 20
2nd half
36 · 41 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Pasto
- homeFortaleza CEIF0:0
- awayBoyaca Chico0:3
- homeOnce Caldas1:0
- awayAmerica de Cali1:0
- awayCucuta Deportivo2:2
Alianza Valledupar
- awayDeportivo Cali1:3
- awayJaguares de Cordoba2:1
- homeIndependiente Santa Fe1:4
- awayBoyaca Chico2:1
- homeJunior1:0
Head to head
- 04/01/26Categoria Primera A0:0
- 10/05/25Categoria Primera A3:3
- 04/15/25Categoria Primera A0:1
- 09/30/24Categoria Primera A1:0
- 03/15/24Categoria Primera A1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Bucaramanga301113646:3046
Bucaramanga301113646:304610
Independiente Medellin311371145:4046
Independiente Medellin311371145:404611Pasto331271438:4643
Pasto331271438:464312
La Equidad349141142:5341
La Equidad349141142:534113
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:4040
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:404014
Llaneros318121132:3636
Llaneros318121132:363615
Fortaleza CEIF316141135:4532
Fortaleza CEIF316141135:453216
Cucuta Deportivo317101437:5431
Cucuta Deportivo317101437:543117
Boyaca Chico30851725:5029
Boyaca Chico30851725:502918Alianza Valledupar316101525:5128
Alianza Valledupar316101525:512819
Jaguares de Cordoba30671731:5325
Jaguares de Cordoba30671731:532520
Deportivo Pereira302121622:4918
Deportivo Pereira302121622:4918Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.