Both teams to score
Yes49%
ours 2.04
No51%
ours 1.96
All matches
—
Sparta Prague — Lillestrom, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
Sparta Prague
3.2WWWLL
Lillestrom
1.5LLWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
72%18%10%
Sparta Prague72%Draw18%Lillestrom10%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sparta Prague1.40—
XDraw5.55—
2Lillestrom9.60—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSparta PragueLillestromCombined
Goals scored1.671.002.67
Conceded1.001.672.67
Corners13.612.613.1
Cards1.81.43.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Sparta PragueLillestrom
AC Sparta Praha 72%, Lillestrøm SK 10%. The safest is “AC Sparta Praha or draw” at 90%.
AC Sparta Praha 72%Draw 18%Lillestrøm SK 10%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Match result: Home
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Sparta Prague
- awaySigma Olomouc3:0
- awayAvan Academy4:1
- homeJablonec2:0
- awayHradec Kralove1:2
- homeSlavia Prague0:3
Lillestrom
- awayViking0:3
- homeTorreense1:2
- homeVålerenga Fotball2:0
- awayBrann2:1
- homeFredrikstad1:4
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
17
Egnatia41127:64
Egnatia41127:6418
Paphos41127:64
Paphos41127:6419Lillestrom31113:34
Lillestrom31113:3420
Avan Academy31113:54
Avan Academy31113:5421
Iberia 199941123:74
Iberia 199941123:7422
Thun41127:124
Thun41127:12423
Sheriff41121:64
Sheriff41121:6424
Juventus11005:03
Juventus11005:0325
Crystal Palace11004:03
Crystal Palace11004:0326Sparta Prague11004:13
Sparta Prague11004:1327
Union Saint-Gilloise11003:03
Union Saint-Gilloise11003:0328
Bayer Leverkusen11002:03
Bayer Leverkusen11002:03Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.