Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
—
Omonia — Benfica, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
Omonia
3.8WWDWD
Benfica
4.0LWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
22%24%54%
Omonia22%Draw24%Benfica54%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Omonia4.57—
XDraw4.12—
2Benfica1.86—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricOmoniaBenficaCombined
Goals scored0.831.672.50
Conceded0.170.670.84
Corners12.310.311.3
Cards1.73.34.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
OmoniaBenfica
AC Omonia Nicosia 22%, SL Benfica 54%. The safest is “SL Benfica or draw” at 78%.
AC Omonia Nicosia 22%Draw 24%SL Benfica 54%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Omonia
- homeDigenis Ypsonas4:1
- homeCelta Vigo1:0
- homeApollon Limassol0:0
- awayAris Limassol4:1
- homeOmonia Aradippou0:0
Benfica
- awayPorto1:3
- awayAC Milan2:0
- homeGil Vicente3:1
- awayMoreirense4:0
- awayMaritimo3:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Ferencvaros972019:623
Ferencvaros972019:6232
Besiktas760112:218
Besiktas760112:2183Benfica751121:616
Benfica751121:6164
Anderlecht751115:616
Anderlecht751115:6165
Salzburg54109:313
Salzburg54109:3136
CSKA Sofia83239:1111
CSKA Sofia83239:11117
Lech Poznan531115:610
Lech Poznan531115:6108
Jagiellonia531110:510
Jagiellonia531110:5109Omonia53117:410
Omonia53117:41010
OFI33007:09
OFI33007:0911
Maccabi Tel Aviv43019:49
Maccabi Tel Aviv43019:49Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.