Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.88
No47%
ours 2.14
All matches
—
AC Milan — Bologna, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
AC Milan
2.8WLDDW
Bologna
2.3DLDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
52%26%22%
AC Milan52%Draw26%Bologna22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AC Milan1.92—
XDraw3.88—
2Bologna4.49—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAC MilanBolognaCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.000.670.67
Corners5.011.38.2
Cards0.01.31.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AC MilanBologna
AC Milan 52%, Bologna FC 1909 22%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
AC Milan 52%Draw 26%Bologna FC 1909 22%
1st half
34 · 42 · 24
2nd half
37 · 38 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
AC Milan
- homeLecce3:0
- homeBenfica0:2
- awayLazio2:2
- awayJuventus1:1
- homeVenezia2:0
Bologna
- homeTorino1:1
- awayNapoli0:1
- homeSassuolo2:2
- awayAtalanta0:1
- homeLazio0:1
Head to head
- 02/03/26Serie A3:0
- 09/14/25Serie A1:0
- 05/09/25Serie A3:1
- 02/27/25Serie A1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Lazio54108:313
Lazio54108:3134
Cagliari54015:212
Cagliari54015:2125AC Milan532010:411
AC Milan532010:4116
Frosinone53119:410
Frosinone53119:4107
Juventus53118:410
Juventus53118:4108
Como53119:610
Como53119:6109
Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711
Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612
Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613
Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:11414
Torino51135:84
Torino51135:8415
Parma51134:74
Parma51134:7416
Monza51138:124
Monza51138:12417
Fiorentina51136:124
Fiorentina51136:12418Bologna50233:62
Bologna50233:6219
Genoa50143:101
Genoa50143:10120
Venezia50054:130
Venezia50054:130Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.