Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.71
No42%
ours 2.41
All matches
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AC Cesena — US Avellino, Serie B
Italy, Serie B
AC Cesena
DDDWD
US Avellino
LDWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%27%26%
AC Cesena47%Draw27%US Avellino26%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AC Cesena2.12—
XDraw3.68—
2US Avellino3.91—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAC CesenaUS AvellinoCombined
Goals scored1.171.172.34
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners10.28.49.3
Cards2.02.44.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AC CesenaUS Avellino
AC Cesena 47%, US Avellino 26%. The safest is “AC Cesena or draw” at 76%.
AC Cesena 47%Draw 27%US Avellino 26%
1st half
38 · 38 · 25
2nd half
46 · 34 · 19
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
AC Cesena
- awaySS Juve Stabia1:1
- homeUS Cremonese2:2
- homeMantova FC1:1
- awayACD Virtus Entella2:1
- homeUC Sampdoria1:1
US Avellino
- awayAscoli Picchio FC 18981:3
- homeUS Città di Palermo1:1
- awayModena FC1:0
- homeVicenza Calcio3:0
- homeUnione Sportiva Arezzo1:2
Head to head
- 01/31/26Serie B1:3
- 11/09/25Serie B3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Ascoli Picchio FC 189853117:410
Ascoli Picchio FC 189853117:4106
Hellas Verona FC521210:77
Hellas Verona FC521210:777US Avellino52127:67
US Avellino52127:678AC Cesena51407:67
AC Cesena51407:679
Benevento Calcio52126:57
Benevento Calcio52126:5710
AC Pisa 190952128:87
AC Pisa 190952128:87Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.