All matches

Aberdeen — St. Mirren, Premiership

Scotland, Premiership

Aberdeen
1.3DWDLL
—
St. Mirren
1.3LLLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
46%26%29%
Aberdeen46%Draw26%St. Mirren29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Aberdeen46%2.18—
XDraw26%3.91—
2St. Mirren29%3.50—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAberdeenSt. MirrenCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.831.502.33
Corners13.412.613.0
Cards3.42.25.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AberdeenSt. Mirren

Aberdeen FC 46%, Saint Mirren FC 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Aberdeen FC 46%Draw 26%Saint Mirren FC 29%
1st half
33 · 39 · 28
2nd half
34 · 38 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Aberdeen

  • awayHibernian1:1
  • awayMotherwell4:0
  • homeKilmarnock0:0
  • awayCeltic0:3
  • homeRangers0:1

St. Mirren

  • homeDundee United0:3
  • awayRangers0:1
  • homeCeltic1:2
  • awayKilmarnock1:0
  • homeMotherwell3:3

Head to head

  • 05/12/26Premiership0:2
  • 04/04/26Premiership0:2
  • 12/03/25Premiership3:3
  • 10/18/25Premiership1:0
  • 05/03/25Premiership0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Hearts741214:813
4Dundee73139:710
5St. Mirren73138:910
6Saint Johnstone72239:108
7Aberdeen72237:88
8Dundee United72239:118
9Motherwell72239:118

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.