Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
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Aberdeen — Falkirk, Premiership
Scotland, Premiership
Aberdeen
1.3DWDLL
Falkirk
1.7DWDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%26%33%
Aberdeen42%Draw26%Falkirk33%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Aberdeen2.39—
XDraw3.90—
2Falkirk3.07—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAberdeenFalkirkCombined
Goals scored0.830.671.50
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners11.712.312.0
Cards3.32.05.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AberdeenFalkirk
Aberdeen FC 42%, Falkirk FC 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Aberdeen FC 42%Draw 26%Falkirk FC 33%
1st half
36 · 37 · 27
2nd half
30 · 39 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Aberdeen
- awayHibernian1:1
- awayMotherwell4:0
- homeKilmarnock0:0
- awayCeltic0:3
- homeRangers0:1
Falkirk
- awaySaint Johnstone1:1
- homeHearts2:1
- awayDundee United1:1
- homeRangers1:2
- awayCeltic1:2
Head to head
- 03/14/26Premiership1:1
- 01/03/26Premiership0:1
- 08/31/25Premiership0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
St. Mirren73138:910
St. Mirren73138:9106
Saint Johnstone72239:108
Saint Johnstone72239:1087Aberdeen72237:88
Aberdeen72237:888
Dundee United72239:118
Dundee United72239:1189
Motherwell72239:118
Motherwell72239:11810
Hibernian72148:117
Hibernian72148:11711Falkirk71336:96
Falkirk71336:9612
Kilmarnock71246:155
Kilmarnock71246:155Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.