AB Argir — B36 Tórshavn, Premier League

Faroe Islands, Premier LeagueOctober 11 at 04:15 PM

AB Argir

1.6LDLLL

—

B36 Tórshavn

2.2LLDDW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

27%27%45%

AB ArgirMarket 3.6427%DrawMarket 3.6627%B36 TórshavnMarket 1.7945%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1AB Argir27%27%3.683.64-0.3

XDraw27%27%3.653.66+0.1

2B36 Tórshavn45%56%2.201.79-10.5

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83book 1.53

No45%

ours 2.21book 2.32

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 907 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 906 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 903 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AB ArgirB36 Tórshavn

AB Argir 27%, B36 Tórshavn 45%. The safest is “B36 Tórshavn or draw” at 73%.

AB Argir 27%Draw 27%B36 Tórshavn 45%

1st half

33 · 41 · 25

2nd half

22 · 35 · 43

Bookmakers: 3.64 · 3.66 · 1.79

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 4.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAB ArgirB36 TórshavnCombined

Goals scored1.500.832.33

Conceded2.671.334.00

Corners7.011.79.3

Cards1.72.54.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.