All matches

Koln — Schalke 04, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

Koln
1.7LDLWL
—
Schalke 04
2.4DWDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
39%26%35%
Koln39%Draw26%Schalke 0435%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Koln39%2.54—
XDraw26%3.86—
2Schalke 0435%2.87—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.36

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKolnSchalke 04Combined
Goals scored1.000.501.50
Conceded1.500.672.17
Corners13.010.511.8
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

KolnSchalke 04

1. FC Köln 39%, FC Schalke 04 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

1. FC Köln 39%Draw 26%FC Schalke 04 35%
1st half
36 · 40 · 25
2nd half
35 · 38 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Koln

  • awayHamburger SV1:2
  • homeWerder Bremen1:1
  • awayStuttgart1:4
  • homeHoffenheim3:2
  • awayBayern Munich1:5

Schalke 04

  • homeElversberg0:0
  • awayUnion Berlin3:1
  • homeBayern Munich0:0
  • awayAugsburg0:3
  • homeEintracht Braunschweig1:0

Head to head

  • 02/09/252. Bundesliga1:0
  • 09/01/242. Bundesliga3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9RB Leipzig42029:56
10Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
11Schalke 0441213:45
12Paderborn41123:54
13Koln41126:94
14Hoffenheim41037:103
15Stuttgart41036:93

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.