All matches

ŽP Šport Podbrezová — FC Spartak Trnava, Super Liga

Slovakia, Super Liga

ŽP Šport Podbrezová
1.8WDLDL
—
FC Spartak Trnava
2.7DWDLW
Outcome probability
292645
ŽP Šport Podbrezová29%Draw26%FC Spartak Trnava45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1ŽP Šport Podbrezová29%3.43—
XDraw26%3.81—
2FC Spartak Trnava45%2.24—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.80

No45%

ours 2.24

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricŽP Šport PodbrezováFC Spartak TrnavaCombined
Goals scored1.172.503.67
Conceded2.001.333.33
Corners11.08.79.8
Cards3.72.86.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    ŽP Šport PodbrezováFC Spartak Trnava
    5Table position3
    48.70%Possession53.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FC Spartak Trnava still look stronger — an away win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

ŽP Šport Podbrezová

  • awayMFK Skalica1:0
  • homeKFC Komárno1:1
  • awayMŠK Žilina1:3
  • homeFK Košice2:2
  • awayDAC 1904 Dunajská Streda0:5

FC Spartak Trnava

  • awayDAC 1904 Dunajská Streda2:2
  • homeFK Košice5:2
  • awayMFK Ružomberok1:1
  • homeMŠK Žilina1:3
  • awayFK AS Trenčín4:0

Head to head

  • 05/03/26Super Liga0:3
  • 04/05/26Super Liga1:4
  • 02/21/26Super Liga5:0
  • 12/03/25Super Liga1:3
  • 05/17/25Super Liga1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda862025:520
2MŠK Žilina962123:1720
3FC Spartak Trnava953121:1018
4ŠK Slovan Bratislava851220:916
5ŽP Šport Podbrezová942313:1614
6MFK Zemplín Michalovce94149:1113
7FK Košice833221:1812

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.