US Sassuolo Calcio — SS Lazio, Serie A

Italy, Serie AOctober 27 at 05:30 PM

US Sassuolo Calcio

1.8LWDWL

—

SS Lazio

2.7WDWWW

Outcome probability

282943

US Sassuolo Calcio28%Draw29%SS Lazio43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1US Sassuolo Calcio28%3.54—

XDraw29%3.48—

2SS Lazio43%2.32—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUS Sassuolo CalcioSS LazioCombined

Goals scored1.001.002.00

Conceded1.000.501.50

Corners14.08.711.3

Cards1.31.02.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
US Sassuolo CalcioSS Lazio
10Table position3
3.2Days of rest2.9
48.30%Possession48.30%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, SS Lazio still look stronger — an away win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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