Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
—
US Hostert — FC Progrès Niederkorn, National Division
Luxembourg, National Division
US Hostert
1.7DDWLWFC Progrès Niederkorn
2.1DWWLLOutcome probability
282151
US Hostert28%Draw21%FC Progrès Niederkorn51%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1US Hostert3.61—
XDraw4.68—
2FC Progrès Niederkorn1.96—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricUS HostertFC Progrès NiederkornCombined
Goals scored1.671.673.34
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners8.87.07.9
Cards0.0——
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
US HostertFC Progrès Niederkorn9Table position541.60%Possession52.20%14Days of rest140Matches in 14 days0 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Progrès Niederkorn travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
71%
Form and context
US Hostert
- homeAS la Jeunesse d'Esch1:1
- homeF91 Dudelange0:0
- awayFC Victoria Rosport2:0
- homeFC Differdange 030:2
- awayFC Swift Hesperange2:0
FC Progrès Niederkorn
- homeRacing FC Union Lëtzebuerg0:0
- awayFC Wiltz 712:1
- homeUS Rumelange3:0
- awayUS Mondorf-les-Bains1:2
- homeFC UNA Strassen0:1
Head to head
- 03/15/26National Division1:5
- 10/01/25National Division1:2
- 05/04/25National Division1:3
- 11/24/24National Division2:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
US Mondorf-les-Bains860216:1118
US Mondorf-les-Bains860216:11184
Racing FC Union Lëtzebuerg852122:717
Racing FC Union Lëtzebuerg852122:7175FC Progrès Niederkorn851213:516
FC Progrès Niederkorn851213:5166
Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 97850323:1515
Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 97850323:15157
FC Atert Bissen850318:1115
FC Atert Bissen850318:11158
FC Résidence Walferdange850316:1015
FC Résidence Walferdange850316:10159US Hostert832314:1111
US Hostert832314:111110
AS la Jeunesse d'Esch821514:177
AS la Jeunesse d'Esch821514:17711
F91 Dudelange82158:157
F91 Dudelange82158:157