Trabzonspor — Beşiktaş, Süper Lig

Turkey, Süper LigOctober 19 at 05:00 PM

Trabzonspor

2.7WLWLL

—

Beşiktaş

3.0LWWWW

Outcome probability

442828

Trabzonspor44%Draw28%Beşiktaş28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Trabzonspor44%2.30—

XDraw28%3.56—

2Beşiktaş28%3.53—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.38

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTrabzonsporBeşiktaşCombined

Goals scored1.671.833.50

Conceded0.500.831.33

Corners8.09.38.6

Cards3.33.36.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
TrabzonsporBeşiktaş
7Table position3
56.50%Possession62.00%
4Days of rest3.9
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Trabzonspor look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans