All matches

Tigres UANL — Deportivo Toluca FC, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Tigres UANL
2.4WLDDD
—
Deportivo Toluca FC
3.1DLWWW
Outcome probability
342838
Tigres UANL34%Draw28%Deportivo Toluca FC38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Tigres UANL34%2.95—
XDraw28%3.62—
2Deportivo Toluca FC38%2.60—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.95

No49%

ours 2.05

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTigres UANLDeportivo Toluca FCCombined
Goals scored0.672.833.50
Conceded0.501.502.00
Corners8.711.310.0
Cards1.31.32.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Tigres UANLDeportivo Toluca FC
    15Table position1
    52.70%Possession53.70%
    13Days of rest13.2
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Deportivo Toluca FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Tigres UANL

  • homePuebla FC1:0
  • awayFC Juárez0:2
  • awayCF Monterrey0:0
  • homeClub Necaxa1:1
  • awayClub Santos Laguna0:0

Deportivo Toluca FC

  • awayCruz Azul FC3:3
  • homeClub Santos Laguna2:3
  • awayPuebla FC1:0
  • homeCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara5:2
  • homeFC Juárez4:0

Head to head

  • 01/18/26Liga MX0:0
  • 12/15/25Liga MX1:2
  • 12/12/25Liga MX1:0
  • 07/27/25Liga MX4:3
  • 05/18/25Liga MX0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Deportivo Toluca FC1062223:1220
2Club América962121:1020
3CD Guadalajara1053217:1018
4Querétaro FC952213:817
5Club León1052314:1117
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812
14Club Atlante1025312:1511
15Tigres UANL1024410:1310
16Club Santos Laguna1031610:1510
17Club Necaxa1022612:208

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.