SL Benfica — Vitória Guimarães SC, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 11 at 05:00 PM

SL Benfica

4.0LWWWW

—

Vitória Guimarães SC

2.0DLDLW

Outcome probability

SL Benfica86%Draw10%Vitória Guimarães SC4%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SL Benfica86%1.17—

XDraw10%10.07—

2Vitória Guimarães SC4%23.15—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.23

No55%

ours 1.81

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSL BenficaVitória Guimarães SCCombined

Goals scored2.500.833.33

Conceded0.831.172.00

Corners9.78.89.3

Cards2.72.35.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SL BenficaVitória Guimarães SC
2Table position14
59.70%Possession55.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour SL Benfica: a home win is rated at 86%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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