All matches

Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho — FC Lahti, Veikkausliiga

Finland, Veikkausliiga

Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho
2.0WDDDL
—
FC Lahti
1.7DLWWW
Outcome probability
442729
Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho44%Draw27%FC Lahti29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho44%2.27—
XDraw27%3.75—
2FC Lahti29%3.42—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.04

No51%

ours 1.96

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSeinäjoen JalkapallokerhoFC LahtiCombined
Goals scored0.671.332.00
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners9.79.29.4
Cards3.02.75.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Seinäjoen JalkapallokerhoFC Lahti
    10Table position5
    54.70%Possession58.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 44%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho

  • homeIFK Mariehamn2:1
  • awayFF Jaro1:1
  • awayTurun Palloseura0:0
  • awayAC Oulu0:0
  • homeFC Lahti1:2

FC Lahti

  • homeFF Jaro1:1
  • awayTampereen Ilves1:3
  • homeIFK Mariehamn2:1
  • awayVaasan Palloseura1:0
  • awaySeinäjoen Jalkapallokerho2:1

Head to head

  • 08/21/26Veikkausliiga1:2
  • 06/13/26Veikkausliiga3:2
  • 07/27/24Veikkausliiga5:5
  • 05/27/24Veikkausliiga4:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi25126739:2942
4IF Gnistan25118640:3241
5FC Lahti25106930:2436
6Vaasan Palloseura25106930:2536
7Tampereen Ilves251041142:3834
8AC Oulu251041126:2934
9Turun Palloseura2588928:2732
10Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho25591128:3524
11IFK Mariehamn25451620:4717
12FF Jaro25381420:4817

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.