SC Heerenveen — SBV Excelsior, Eredivisie

Netherlands, EredivisieOctober 16 at 06:00 PM

SC Heerenveen

2.0WDLDL

—

SBV Excelsior

2.2DLDWW

Outcome probability

452827

SC Heerenveen45%Draw28%SBV Excelsior27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Heerenveen45%2.24—

XDraw28%3.53—

2SBV Excelsior27%3.69—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.29

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC HeerenveenSBV ExcelsiorCombined

Goals scored1.331.673.00

Conceded1.171.172.34

Corners10.89.09.9

Cards0.82.02.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC HeerenveenSBV Excelsior
57.40%Possession38.40%
10Table position7
7Days of rest5.1
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SC Heerenveen look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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