Sarpsborg 08 FF — Rosenborg BK, Eliteserien

Norway, EliteserienOctober 18 at 12:30 PM

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.9LDDDL

—

Rosenborg BK

2.4WWWLW

Outcome probability

322444

Sarpsborg 08 FF32%Draw24%Rosenborg BK44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Sarpsborg 08 FF32%3.09—

XDraw24%4.22—

2Rosenborg BK44%2.28—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.65

No39%

ours 2.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSarpsborg 08 FFRosenborg BKCombined

Goals scored0.832.673.50

Conceded1.331.502.83

Corners10.811.211.0

Cards0.80.61.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Sarpsborg 08 FFRosenborg BK
9Table position5
57.20%Possession46.00%
6.9Days of rest7.9
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Rosenborg BK still look stronger — an away win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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