San Francisco FC Panama — CD Universitario, LPF

Panama, LPFOctober 10 at 01:30 AM

San Francisco FC Panama

2.2WLWDW

—

CD Universitario

1.5WDLDD

Outcome probability

523019

San Francisco FC Panama52%Draw30%CD Universitario19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1San Francisco FC Panama52%1.94—

XDraw30%3.35—

2CD Universitario19%5.39—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSan Francisco FC PanamaCD UniversitarioCombined

Goals scored1.830.502.33

Conceded0.830.501.33

Corners7.812.810.3

Cards1.62.44.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
San Francisco FC PanamaCD Universitario
3Table position8
7Days of rest6
53.40%Possession52.40%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
San Francisco FC Panama look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 52%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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