Real Club Deportivo de La Coruña — Levante UD, La Liga

Spain, La LigaOctober 16 at 07:00 PM

Real Club Deportivo de La Coruña

2.5DLDWW

—

Levante UD

2.1LLDWD

Outcome probability

532522

Real Club Deportivo de La Coruña53%Draw25%Levante UD22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Real Club Deportivo de La Coruña53%1.88—

XDraw25%3.96—

2Levante UD22%4.64—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricReal Club Deportivo de La CoruñaLevante UDCombined

Goals scored1.331.332.66

Conceded1.001.502.50

Corners10.410.410.4

Cards1.21.22.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Real Club Deportivo de La CoruñaLevante UD
7Table position17
5.2Days of rest4
48.40%Possession38.80%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Real Club Deportivo de La Coruña: a home win is rated at 53%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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