All matches

Qarabağ Ağdam FK — Neftçi PFC Bakı, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

Qarabağ Ağdam FK
3.4WDWWL
—
Neftçi PFC Bakı
2.7WWWLW
Outcome probability
542621
Qarabağ Ağdam FK54%Draw26%Neftçi PFC Bakı21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Qarabağ Ağdam FK54%1.87—
XDraw26%3.92—
2Neftçi PFC Bakı21%4.77—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.71

No42%

ours 2.41

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricQarabağ Ağdam FKNeftçi PFC BakıCombined
Goals scored1.172.503.67
Conceded1.170.671.84
Corners10.49.810.1
Cards1.81.83.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Qarabağ Ağdam FKNeftçi PFC Bakı
    3Table position1
    4.5Days of rest6.4
    60.40%Possession55.20%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Qarabağ Ağdam FK: a home win is rated at 54%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Qarabağ Ağdam FK

  • homeFK Safa1:0
  • awayZira IK1:1
  • homeAraz FK3:2
  • awayFK Sumqayıt1:0
  • homeFC Twente1:4

Neftçi PFC Bakı

  • awayFK Qabala3:0
  • awayMil Muğan FK3:2
  • homeFK Safa4:1
  • awayZira IK0:1
  • homeAraz FK5:0

Head to head

  • 04/30/26Premyer Liqası1:2
  • 04/26/26Premyer Liqası5:1
  • 11/09/25Premyer Liqası2:0
  • 04/19/25Premyer Liqası3:0
  • 02/16/25Premyer Liqası1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Neftçi PFC Bakı650118:515
2Sabah FK550014:115
3Qarabağ Ağdam FK54109:413
4Turan-T IK63216:411
5Zira IK63127:810

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.