All matches

Portsmouth FC — Sheffield United FC, Championship

England, Championship

Portsmouth FC
1.4DDWLL
—
Sheffield United FC
2.0LLWLW
Outcome probability
402931
Portsmouth FC40%Draw29%Sheffield United FC31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Portsmouth FC40%2.49—
XDraw29%3.50—
2Sheffield United FC31%3.20—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.80

No45%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPortsmouth FCSheffield United FCCombined
Goals scored0.831.172.00
Conceded1.001.502.50
Corners13.29.811.5
Cards0.82.02.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Portsmouth FCSheffield United FC
    3.3Days of rest4.2
    51.80%Possession42.20%
    19Table position18
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Portsmouth FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Portsmouth FC

  • homeBlackburn Rovers FC2:2
  • awayCharlton Athletic FC0:0
  • homeCardiff City FC2:0
  • homeDerby County FC0:2
  • awayBristol City FC1:2

Sheffield United FC

  • awayStoke City FC1:2
  • homeWolverhampton Wanderers FC0:1
  • awayBlackburn Rovers FC2:1
  • homeNorwich City FC1:3
  • homeBolton Wanderers FC3:2

Head to head

  • 02/14/26Championship0:1
  • 11/26/25Championship0:3
  • 02/08/25Championship1:2
  • 09/28/24Championship0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
16Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
17Norwich City FC830516:179
18Sheffield United FC82339:119
19Portsmouth FC72239:108
20Watford FC82247:108
21Cardiff City FC814310:127

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.