Orlando City SC — Columbus Crew, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 10 at 11:30 PM

Orlando City SC

2.1LLWWW

—

Columbus Crew

1.9WWLLW

Outcome probability

452530

Orlando City SC45%Draw25%Columbus Crew30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Orlando City SC45%2.20—

XDraw25%4.03—

2Columbus Crew30%3.35—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.48

No33%

ours 3.07

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOrlando City SCColumbus CrewCombined

Goals scored2.331.503.83

Conceded2.171.173.34

Corners10.58.09.3

Cards2.32.54.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Orlando City SCColumbus Crew
16Table position25
14Days of rest13
55.80%Possession54.80%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Orlando City SC: a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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