Örgryte IS — GAIS, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 18 at 02:30 PM

Örgryte IS

1.4LLDLD

—

GAIS

2.4WDWLL

Outcome probability

212257

Örgryte IS21%Draw22%GAIS57%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Örgryte IS21%4.81—

XDraw22%4.60—

2GAIS57%1.74—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.19

No54%

ours 1.84

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricÖrgryte ISGAISCombined

Goals scored0.671.171.84

Conceded1.500.331.83

Corners11.28.39.7

Cards0.21.51.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Örgryte ISGAIS
15Table position10
7Days of rest8.1
54.30%Possession48.20%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, GAIS still look stronger — an away win is rated at 57%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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