NK Varaždin — NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNLOctober 24 at 12:00 AM

NK Varaždin

2.3DDDWL

—

NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica

1.5DLWLW

Outcome probability

6522

NK Varaždin65%Draw22%NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica13%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NK Varaždin65%1.53—

XDraw22%4.56—

2NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica13%7.94—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.28

No56%

ours 1.78

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNK VaraždinNK Slaven Belupo KoprivnicaCombined

Goals scored0.670.671.34

Conceded0.331.171.50

Corners9.59.39.4

Cards1.32.33.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NK VaraždinNK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica
4Table position8
54.80%Possession43.30%
5.5Days of rest5.3
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour NK Varaždin: a home win is rated at 65%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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