NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica — GNK Dinamo Zagreb, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNLOctober 18 at 04:00 PM

NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica

1.5DLWLW

—

GNK Dinamo Zagreb

3.5WDLWD

Outcome probability

1871

NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica11%Draw18%GNK Dinamo Zagreb71%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica11%9.46—

XDraw18%5.45—

2GNK Dinamo Zagreb71%1.41—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70

No41%

ours 2.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNK Slaven Belupo KoprivnicaGNK Dinamo ZagrebCombined

Goals scored1.001.002.00

Conceded1.171.002.17

Corners9.28.89.0

Cards2.21.53.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NK Slaven Belupo KoprivnicaGNK Dinamo Zagreb
8Table position1
7Days of rest2.9
1Matches in 14 days2
43.20%Possession54.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
GNK Dinamo Zagreb travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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