Molde FK — IK Start, Eliteserien

Norway, EliteserienOctober 18 at 03:00 PM

Molde FK

2.3LWWWW

—

IK Start

1.5LWLWL

Outcome probability

7016

Molde FK70%Draw16%IK Start13%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Molde FK70%1.42—

XDraw16%6.11—

2IK Start13%7.51—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMolde FKIK StartCombined

Goals scored2.501.003.50

Conceded1.331.172.50

Corners9.412.210.8

Cards2.01.43.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Molde FKIK Start
4Table position16
66.50%Possession37.50%
6.9Days of rest7
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Molde FK look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 70%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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