All matches

Manta FC — CD Cuenca, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Manta FC
1.1WDLLW
—
CD Cuenca
1.6DDLWL
Outcome probability
342937
Manta FC34%Draw29%CD Cuenca37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Manta FC34%2.98—
XDraw29%3.39—
2CD Cuenca37%2.71—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.40

No58%

ours 1.71

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricManta FCCD CuencaCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded1.000.501.50
Corners7.39.58.4
Cards3.01.84.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Manta FCCD Cuenca
    16Table position12
    47.00%Possession45.00%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    CD Cuenca travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Manta FC

  • homeOrense SC2:1
  • homeSD Aucas0:0
  • awayCS Emelec0:1
  • awayCSD Macará3:4
  • homeBarcelona SC2:0

CD Cuenca

  • homeMushuc Runa SC1:1
  • awayLiga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito1:1
  • homeCA Libertad0:1
  • homeGuayaquil City FC1:0
  • awayCD Técnico Universitario1:3

Head to head

  • 08/11/26Primera Categoría Serie A2:1
  • 04/19/26Primera Categoría Serie A0:1
  • 08/23/25Primera Categoría Serie A0:1
  • 05/03/25Primera Categoría Serie A0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Mushuc Runa SC319121036:3939
11CS Emelec311091226:3639
12CD Cuenca311071426:3837
13Orense SC31961637:4933
14CD Técnico Universitario311031829:4333
15Delfin SC31781620:3229
16Manta FC31661919:4324

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.