All matches

LASK Linz — SK Rapid Wien, Bundesliga

Austria, Bundesliga

LASK Linz
2.8DLLWW
—
SK Rapid Wien
2.5WWLWD
Outcome probability
572320
LASK Linz57%Draw23%SK Rapid Wien20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1LASK Linz57%1.76—
XDraw23%4.35—
2SK Rapid Wien20%4.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.49

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLASK LinzSK Rapid WienCombined
Goals scored2.502.334.83
Conceded1.331.673.00
Corners10.510.310.4
Cards1.82.84.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    LASK LinzSK Rapid Wien
    3Table position1
    59.70%Possession58.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour LASK Linz: a home win is rated at 57%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 4.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

LASK Linz

  • awayTSV Hartberg3:3
  • awaySK Sturm Graz1:2
  • awayAEK Athens FC0:1
  • awayWolfsberger Athletik Club3:1
  • homeSC Rheindorf Altach3:0

SK Rapid Wien

  • homeWSG Swarovski Wattens3:0
  • awayWolfsberger Athletik Club3:0
  • awayFC Salzburg1:5
  • homeSK Sturm Graz3:1
  • homeHeart of Midlothian FC2:2

Head to head

  • 05/04/26Bundesliga3:1
  • 03/22/26Bundesliga2:4
  • 11/30/25Bundesliga3:0
  • 10/19/25Bundesliga2:0
  • 06/01/25Bundesliga0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1SK Rapid Wien760121:718
2FC Salzburg752018:417
3LASK Linz751119:716
4SK Sturm Graz73228:911
5SV Ried722311:128

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.