LA Galaxy — Portland Timbers, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 15 at 02:30 AM

LA Galaxy

1.8WWDLW

—

Portland Timbers

1.7LLLDW

Outcome probability

452530

LA Galaxy45%Draw25%Portland Timbers30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1LA Galaxy45%2.21—

XDraw25%4.02—

2Portland Timbers30%3.35—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.49

No33%

ours 3.03

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLA GalaxyPortland TimbersCombined

Goals scored1.501.503.00

Conceded1.502.003.50

Corners10.610.410.5

Cards1.41.02.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
LA GalaxyPortland Timbers
14Table position21
3.1Days of rest4.1
48.60%Possession54.20%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour LA Galaxy: a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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