All matches

KR Reykjavík — Breidablik UBK, Úrvalsdeild

Iceland, Úrvalsdeild

KR Reykjavík
2.2LWLDW
—
Breidablik UBK
2.3LWLLL
Outcome probability
572023
KR Reykjavík57%Draw20%Breidablik UBK23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1KR Reykjavík57%1.76—
XDraw20%4.94—
2Breidablik UBK23%4.36—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes83%

ours 1.21

No17%

ours 5.77

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKR ReykjavíkBreidablik UBKCombined
Goals scored1.330.832.16
Conceded1.171.502.67
Corners14.313.013.6
Cards2.51.33.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    KR ReykjavíkBreidablik UBK
    2Table position4
    7Days of rest5.8
    55.50%Possession50.30%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    KR Reykjavík look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 57%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

KR Reykjavík

  • homeVíkingur Reykjavík1:2
  • homeÍA Akranes5:1
  • awayÍA Akranes1:3
  • homeVíkingur Reykjavík1:1
  • awayKA Akureyri5:3

Breidablik UBK

  • awayÍA Akranes1:4
  • awayFram Reykjavík3:1
  • awayKA Akureyri1:2
  • homeUMF Stjarnan0:2
  • homeFram Reykjavík3:4

Head to head

  • 08/16/26Úrvalsdeild3:3
  • 05/22/26Úrvalsdeild3:6
  • 07/26/25Úrvalsdeild1:1
  • 05/05/25Úrvalsdeild3:3
  • 07/21/24Úrvalsdeild2:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Víkingur Reykjavík24185173:2359
2KR Reykjavík24145580:5247
3Fram Reykjavík24137459:4746
4Breidablik UBK2496947:4633
5ÍA Akranes2496944:4733
6Valur Reykjavík24941144:4731

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.