All matches

IK Start — Hamarkameratene Fotball, Eliteserien

Norway, Eliteserien

IK Start
1.5LWLWL
—
Hamarkameratene Fotball
1.5LLLDL
Outcome probability
462430
IK Start46%Draw24%Hamarkameratene Fotball30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1IK Start46%2.17—
XDraw24%4.21—
2Hamarkameratene Fotball30%3.33—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.80

No44%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIK StartHamarkameratene FotballCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded1.673.004.67
Corners12.010.211.1
Cards1.51.32.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    IK StartHamarkameratene Fotball
    16Table position13
    46.30%Possession43.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    IK Start look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

IK Start

  • awaySandefjord Fotball0:3
  • homeSK Brann2:0
  • awayAalesunds0:2
  • homeKFUM Fotball4:1
  • homeFredrikstad FK0:1

Hamarkameratene Fotball

  • awayTromsø IL2:3
  • homeMolde FK1:5
  • awayRosenborg BK0:4
  • homeKristiansund BK2:2
  • awaySK Brann0:3

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Eliteserien1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Sandefjord Fotball2065919:2423
12Vålerenga Fotball21651034:4323
13Hamarkameratene Fotball21651029:4423
14Aalesunds2149833:4621
15Kristiansund BK21541221:4019
16IK Start21441322:4416

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.