IF Elfsborg — Halmstads BK, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 12 at 05:00 PM

IF Elfsborg

2.2WWLWD

—

Halmstads BK

0.9WLLWD

Outcome probability

642016

IF Elfsborg64%Draw20%Halmstads BK16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1IF Elfsborg64%1.56—

XDraw20%5.09—

2Halmstads BK16%6.08—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.39

No58%

ours 1.72

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIF ElfsborgHalmstads BKCombined

Goals scored1.670.832.50

Conceded0.671.171.84

Corners10.313.311.8

Cards1.01.02.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
IF ElfsborgHalmstads BK
4Table position16
53.00%Possession44.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour IF Elfsborg: a home win is rated at 64%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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