Go Ahead Eagles — SC Telstar, Eredivisie

Netherlands, EredivisieOctober 23 at 06:00 PM

Go Ahead Eagles

1.8DDDLW

—

SC Telstar

1.8LDLDL

Outcome probability

512722

Go Ahead Eagles51%Draw27%SC Telstar22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Go Ahead Eagles51%1.96—

XDraw27%3.73—

2SC Telstar22%4.50—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGo Ahead EaglesSC TelstarCombined

Goals scored1.170.331.50

Conceded1.670.672.34

Corners11.39.510.4

Cards1.01.82.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Go Ahead EaglesSC Telstar
9Table position13
52.80%Possession38.50%
5.3Days of rest6
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Go Ahead Eagles: a home win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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