FK Qabala — Sabah FK, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer LiqasıOctober 16 at 12:00 AM

FK Qabala

1.1LLWDL

—

Sabah FK

3.4WWLWW

Outcome probability

FK Qabala5%Draw11%Sabah FK84%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Qabala5%19.76—

XDraw11%9.19—

2Sabah FK84%1.19—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes40%

ours 2.53

No60%

ours 1.65

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK QabalaSabah FKCombined

Goals scored0.331.832.16

Conceded1.000.831.83

Corners7.88.07.9

Cards1.21.02.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK QabalaSabah FK
9Table position2
5.4Days of rest2.3
1Matches in 14 days2
51.00%Possession54.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Sabah FK still look stronger — an away win is rated at 84%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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