FC Samgurali Tskaltubo — FC Meshakhte Tkibuli, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli LigaOctober 17 at 11:30 AM

FC Samgurali Tskaltubo

1.5LLLLD

—

FC Meshakhte Tkibuli

1.3DLDDW

Outcome probability

502624

FC Samgurali Tskaltubo50%Draw26%FC Meshakhte Tkibuli24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Samgurali Tskaltubo50%2.02—

XDraw26%3.79—

2FC Meshakhte Tkibuli24%4.16—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.87

No46%

ours 2.15

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Samgurali TskaltuboFC Meshakhte TkibuliCombined

Goals scored1.170.832.00

Conceded2.000.672.67

Corners10.48.29.3

Cards2.21.63.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Samgurali TskaltuboFC Meshakhte Tkibuli
7Table position10
6Days of rest7
53.40%Possession46.60%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Samgurali Tskaltubo look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Home

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context