All matches

FC Rustavi — FC Dinamo Tbilisi, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli Liga

FC Rustavi
2.3LWDLD
—
FC Dinamo Tbilisi
2.5WWDDW
Outcome probability
363033
FC Rustavi36%Draw30%FC Dinamo Tbilisi33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Rustavi36%2.75—
XDraw30%3.29—
2FC Dinamo Tbilisi33%3.01—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.83

No65%

ours 1.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC RustaviFC Dinamo TbilisiCombined
Goals scored0.331.171.50
Conceded0.670.331.00
Corners7.87.77.7
Cards1.52.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC RustaviFC Dinamo Tbilisi
    3Table position4
    47.00%Possession53.00%
    5Days of rest5.1
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Rustavi look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 36%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Rustavi

  • homeFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi0:2
  • awayFC Meshakhte Tkibuli1:0
  • awaySpaeri FC1:1
  • homeFC Dinamo Batumi0:1
  • awayFC Samgurali Tskaltubo1:1

FC Dinamo Tbilisi

  • awayFC Samgurali Tskaltubo3:2
  • homeFC Gagra4:0
  • homeFC Meshakhte Tkibuli0:0
  • awayFC Torpedo Kutaisi1:1
  • homeFC Dila Gori2:1

Head to head

  • 08/15/26Erovnuli Liga3:0
  • 05/11/26Erovnuli Liga2:3
  • 03/11/26Erovnuli Liga0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Dinamo Batumi27138646:3647
2FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi26144837:2846
3FC Rustavi27137732:2346
4FC Dinamo Tbilisi26129543:2945
5FC Dila Gori271241138:3040
6FC Torpedo Kutaisi2799943:3436

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.