FC Lorient — Paris FC, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1October 10 at 06:45 PM

FC Lorient

1.9LDWLD

—

Paris FC

2.1WDWWD

Outcome probability

362738

FC Lorient36%Draw27%Paris FC38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Lorient36%2.81—

XDraw27%3.73—

2Paris FC38%2.66—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.20

No55%

ours 1.83

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC LorientParis FCCombined

Goals scored0.831.672.50

Conceded1.330.672.00

Corners7.36.56.9

Cards1.21.52.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC LorientParis FC
12Table position3
50.00%Possession47.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Paris FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 38%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans