FC Koper — NK Brinje-Grosuplje, PrvaLiga

Slovenia, PrvaLigaOctober 18 at 01:00 PM

FC Koper

3.0WLWWW

—

NK Brinje-Grosuplje

1.8WLLWL

Outcome probability

662015

FC Koper66%Draw20%NK Brinje-Grosuplje15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Koper66%1.53—

XDraw20%5.02—

2NK Brinje-Grosuplje15%6.89—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.96

No49%

ours 2.04

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC KoperNK Brinje-GrosupljeCombined

Goals scored1.001.502.50

Conceded0.501.832.33

Corners9.47.48.4

Cards2.81.03.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC KoperNK Brinje-Grosuplje
2Table position8
8Days of rest6.9
53.00%Possession52.80%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Koper: a home win is rated at 66%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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