Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.44
All matches
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FC Internazionale Milano — ACF Fiorentina, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
FC Internazionale Milano
3.9DWLWWACF Fiorentina
2.2DWLLLOutcome probability
79
FC Internazionale Milano79%Draw13%ACF Fiorentina7%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Internazionale Milano1.26—
XDraw7.50—
2ACF Fiorentina13.79—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFC Internazionale MilanoACF FiorentinaCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded0.831.332.16
Corners8.59.08.8
Cards2.01.83.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Internazionale MilanoACF Fiorentina2Table position173Matches in 14 days13.7Days of rest6.958.50%Possession44.50% - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Internazionale Milano: a home win is rated at 79%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
72%
Form and context
FC Internazionale Milano
- awayAS Roma2:2
- homeUdinese Calcio5:3
- awayReal Madrid CF1:2
- homeSSC Napoli3:2
- awayCagliari Calcio1:0
ACF Fiorentina
- homeSSC Napoli1:1
- awayVenezia FC4:2
- homeTorino FC1:2
- homeFrosinone Calcio0:3
- awayAS Roma0:4
Head to head
- 03/22/26Serie A1:1
- 10/29/25Serie A3:0
- 02/10/25Serie A2:1
- 02/06/25Serie A0:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
AS Roma541014:313
AS Roma541014:3132FC Internazionale Milano541015:813
FC Internazionale Milano541015:8133
SS Lazio54108:313
SS Lazio54108:3134
Cagliari Calcio54015:212
Cagliari Calcio54015:2125
AC Milan532010:411
AC Milan532010:4116
Frosinone Calcio53119:410
Frosinone Calcio53119:4107
Juventus FC53118:410
Juventus FC53118:4108
Calcio Como53119:610
Calcio Como53119:6109
SSC Napoli52127:67
SSC Napoli52127:6710
US Sassuolo Calcio52129:97
US Sassuolo Calcio52129:9711
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio52035:76
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio52035:7612
US Lecce52035:106
US Lecce52035:10613
Udinese Calcio51138:114
Udinese Calcio51138:11414
Torino FC51135:84
Torino FC51135:8415
Parma Calcio 191351134:74
Parma Calcio 191351134:7416
SS Monza 191251138:124
SS Monza 191251138:12417ACF Fiorentina51136:124
ACF Fiorentina51136:12418
Bologna FC 190950233:62
Bologna FC 190950233:6219
Genoa CFC50143:101
Genoa CFC50143:101