Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.68
No40%
ours 2.48
All matches
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FC Augsburg — 1. FC Union Berlin, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
FC Augsburg
1.9LDWWL1. FC Union Berlin
1.5LLLDWOutcome probability
532422
FC Augsburg53%Draw24%1. FC Union Berlin22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Augsburg1.88—
XDraw4.08—
21. FC Union Berlin4.50—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFC Augsburg1. FC Union BerlinCombined
Goals scored1.830.672.50
Conceded1.002.833.83
Corners11.89.810.8
Cards1.32.53.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Augsburg1. FC Union Berlin4Table position1739.80%Possession45.80%7Days of rest72Matches in 14 days2 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Augsburg look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 53%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
69%
Form and context
FC Augsburg
- awaySV Werder Bremen2:3
- homeBayer 04 Leverkusen2:2
- awayEintracht Frankfurt4:1
- homeFC Schalke 043:0
- away1. FC Union Berlin0:4
1. FC Union Berlin
- awayFC Bayern München0:7
- homeFC Schalke 041:3
- awayBayer 04 Leverkusen0:4
- homeEintracht Frankfurt3:3
- homeFC Augsburg4:0
Head to head
- 05/16/26Bundesliga0:4
- 01/15/26Bundesliga1:1
- 05/17/25Bundesliga1:2
- 01/15/25Bundesliga2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
FC Bayern München431014:210
FC Bayern München431014:2103
SC Freiburg431012:310
SC Freiburg431012:3104FC Augsburg421111:67
FC Augsburg421111:675
Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:576
1. FSV Mainz 05421110:67
1. FSV Mainz 05421110:677
SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
SV 07 Elversberg42118:778
SV Werder Bremen42118:87
SV Werder Bremen42118:879
Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:56
Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:5610
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:10511
FC Schalke 0441213:45
FC Schalke 0441213:4512
SC Paderborn 0741123:54
SC Paderborn 0741123:5413
1. FC Köln41126:94
1. FC Köln41126:9414
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41037:103
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41037:10315
VfB Stuttgart 189341036:93
VfB Stuttgart 189341036:9316
Hamburger SV41032:133
Hamburger SV41032:133171. FC Union Berlin40134:171
1. FC Union Berlin40134:17118
Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach40046:160
Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach40046:160