FC Argeș Pitești — SCS CFR 1907 Cluj, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 12 at 03:00 PM

FC Argeș Pitești

1.9LDLLL

—

SCS CFR 1907 Cluj

2.8WLDWW

Outcome probability

303139

FC Argeș Pitești30%Draw31%SCS CFR 1907 Cluj39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Argeș Pitești30%3.33—

XDraw31%3.20—

2SCS CFR 1907 Cluj39%2.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes37%

ours 2.68

No63%

ours 1.60

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Argeș PiteștiSCS CFR 1907 ClujCombined

Goals scored0.501.331.83

Conceded1.331.002.33

Corners8.77.48.0

Cards2.21.43.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Argeș PiteștiSCS CFR 1907 Cluj
0Matches in 14 days1
14Days of rest3.9
13Table position8
46.80%Possession45.60%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SCS CFR 1907 Cluj travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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