FC Andorra — Burgos CF, Segunda División

Spain, Segunda DivisiónOctober 26 at 07:30 PM

FC Andorra

1.6WLLLL

—

Burgos CF

2.4WWWDD

Outcome probability

322839

FC Andorra32%Draw28%Burgos CF39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Andorra32%3.08—

XDraw28%3.54—

2Burgos CF39%2.54—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.27

No56%

ours 1.79

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC AndorraBurgos CFCombined

Goals scored0.831.001.83

Conceded1.330.331.66

Corners13.09.311.2

Cards3.33.06.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC AndorraBurgos CF
17Table position4
58.00%Possession44.70%
8.1Days of rest8
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Burgos CF still look stronger — an away win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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