CS Universitatea Craiova — Getafe Club de Fútbol, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference LeagueOctober 15 at 04:45 PM

CS Universitatea Craiova

3.3WWWDL

—

Getafe Club de Fútbol

1.7WLDDL

Outcome probability

383725

CS Universitatea Craiova38%Draw37%Getafe Club de Fútbol25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CS Universitatea Craiova38%2.63—

XDraw37%2.72—

2Getafe Club de Fútbol25%3.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes29%

ours 3.41

No71%

ours 1.41

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCS Universitatea CraiovaGetafe Club de FútbolCombined

Goals scored1.830.502.33

Conceded0.330.671.00

Corners9.08.68.8

Cards1.23.64.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CS Universitatea CraiovaGetafe Club de Fútbol
52.80%Possession38.00%
4.1Days of rest5
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour CS Universitatea Craiova: a home win is rated at 38%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Both teams to score: No

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context