All matches

CR Vasco da Gama — Clube do Remo, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

CR Vasco da Gama
1.6WWLWL
—
Clube do Remo
1.7LLLLL
Outcome probability
562520
CR Vasco da Gama56%Draw25%Clube do Remo20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CR Vasco da Gama56%1.80—
XDraw25%4.03—
2Clube do Remo20%5.12—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.80

No45%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCR Vasco da GamaClube do RemoCombined
Goals scored1.830.832.66
Conceded1.171.672.84
Corners11.212.812.0
Cards2.61.84.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CR Vasco da GamaClube do Remo
    51.40%Possession42.00%
    16Table position19
    2.9Days of rest2.9
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour CR Vasco da Gama: a home win is rated at 56%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CR Vasco da Gama

  • homeCoritiba FBC5:0
  • awayGrêmio FB Porto Alegrense2:1
  • awayFluminense FC0:1
  • homeCruzeiro EC3:1
  • awaySE Palmeiras1:4

Clube do Remo

  • homeSantos FC Sao Paulo1:2
  • awayEC Bahia1:2
  • homeCR Flamengo0:1
  • homeCoritiba FBC2:3
  • awayFluminense FC1:2

Head to head

  • 04/11/26Serie A1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14SC Corinthians Paulista28881229:3232
15Mirassol Futebol Clube28881233:4232
16CR Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
17Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense28781330:3829
18SC Internacional286101230:3628
19Clube do Remo28581532:4723
20Chapecoense AF27391529:5318

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.