All matches

Club León — Deportivo Toluca FC, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Club León
1.5WDWLD
—
Deportivo Toluca FC
3.1DLWWW
Outcome probability
242550
Club León24%Draw25%Deportivo Toluca FC50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club León24%4.11—
XDraw25%3.94—
2Deportivo Toluca FC50%1.99—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub LeónDeportivo Toluca FCCombined
Goals scored0.831.001.83
Conceded0.331.001.33
Corners7.311.09.2
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club LeónDeportivo Toluca FC
    5Table position1
    3.8Days of rest2.9
    52.70%Possession50.70%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Deportivo Toluca FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club León

  • homeFC Juárez2:1
  • awayQuerétaro FC1:1
  • homeAtlético San Luis2:0
  • awayClub Universidad Nacional1:3
  • awayClub Atlante1:1

Deportivo Toluca FC

  • awayCruz Azul FC3:3
  • homeClub Santos Laguna2:3
  • awayPuebla FC1:0
  • homeCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara5:2
  • homeFC Juárez4:0

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Liga MX1:4
  • 10/05/25Liga MX2:4
  • 02/09/25Liga MX3:3
  • 11/02/24Liga MX2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Deportivo Toluca FC1062223:1220
2Club América962121:1020
3CD Guadalajara1053217:1018
4Querétaro FC952213:817
5Club León1052314:1117
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.