Ceará SC — EC Juventude, Serie B

Brazil, Serie BOctober 17 at 07:30 PM

Ceará SC

1.7DWDLW

—

EC Juventude

1.8WLLWD

Outcome probability

373133

Ceará SC37%Draw31%EC Juventude33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Ceará SC37%2.74—

XDraw31%3.24—

2EC Juventude33%3.06—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.85

No65%

ours 1.54

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCeará SCEC JuventudeCombined

Goals scored0.830.331.16

Conceded0.670.671.34

Corners10.07.08.5

Cards3.03.36.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Ceará SCEC Juventude
15Table position2
4.8Days of rest6
48.30%Possession57.00%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Ceará SC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 37%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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