All matches

Birmingham City FC — Queens Park Rangers FC, Championship

England, Championship

Birmingham City FC
1.9DWLDD
—
Queens Park Rangers FC
1.6DDDLW
Outcome probability
482725
Birmingham City FC48%Draw27%Queens Park Rangers FC25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Birmingham City FC48%2.08—
XDraw27%3.68—
2Queens Park Rangers FC25%4.06—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBirmingham City FCQueens Park Rangers FCCombined
Goals scored1.170.501.67
Conceded1.170.671.84
Corners11.813.312.5
Cards2.32.34.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Birmingham City FCQueens Park Rangers FC
    11Table position7
    3.8Days of rest2.8
    47.80%Possession55.30%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Birmingham City FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 48%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Birmingham City FC

  • homeMiddlesbrough FC2:2
  • awayDerby County FC2:1
  • awayNorwich City FC1:2
  • homeWolverhampton Wanderers FC2:2
  • homeSouthampton FC1:1

Queens Park Rangers FC

  • homePreston North End FC2:2
  • awayWest Bromwich Albion FC1:1
  • awayCharlton Athletic FC0:0
  • homeMiddlesbrough FC0:1
  • homeCardiff City FC2:1

Head to head

  • 03/11/26Championship1:0
  • 12/09/25Championship1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Wolverhampton Wanderers FC742115:1014
6West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814
7Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
8Stoke City FC841313:1213
9Bristol City FC841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
11Birmingham City FC825112:1111
12Millwall FC832315:1511
13Lincoln City FC83237:811

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.