All matches

Araz FK — FK Qabala, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

Araz FK
1.8LDLLL
—
FK Qabala
1.1LLWDL
Outcome probability
482824
Araz FK48%Draw28%FK Qabala24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Araz FK48%2.08—
XDraw28%3.53—
2FK Qabala24%4.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.36

No58%

ours 1.74

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAraz FKFK QabalaCombined
Goals scored0.830.331.16
Conceded1.330.832.16
Corners11.58.09.8
Cards2.31.53.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Araz FKFK Qabala
    12Table position9
    42.50%Possession51.50%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Araz FK look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 48%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Araz FK

  • awayFC İnter Bakı1:2
  • homeTuran-T IK2:2
  • awayQarabağ Ağdam FK2:3
  • homeSabah FK0:1
  • awayNeftçi PFC Bakı0:5

FK Qabala

  • homeNeftçi PFC Bakı0:3
  • awayFK Kapaz0:1
  • homeMil Muğan FK2:1
  • homeFC İnter Bakı0:0
  • homeFK Safa0:1

Head to head

  • 04/25/26Premyer Liqası1:1
  • 11/30/25Premyer Liqası1:2
  • 08/30/25Premyer Liqası2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7FK Kapaz52124:77
8Mil Muğan FK61146:114
9FK Qabala61142:74
10FK Safa61052:113
11FK Sumqayıt50234:82
12Araz FK60245:132

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.