Araz FK — FK Kapaz, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer LiqasıOctober 9 at 12:00 PM

Araz FK

1.8LDLLL

—

FK Kapaz

0.9DWLWL

Outcome probability

562619

Araz FK56%Draw26%FK Kapaz19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Araz FK56%1.79—

XDraw26%3.90—

2FK Kapaz19%5.40—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.32

No57%

ours 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAraz FKFK KapazCombined

Goals scored0.830.671.50

Conceded2.171.333.50

Corners10.86.78.8

Cards2.23.05.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Araz FKFK Kapaz
12Table position7
45.00%Possession47.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Araz FK: a home win is rated at 56%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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